The election in Manipur reveals a grim cycle of violence and despair gripping the state. Reports of poll violence have surfaced, creating an atmosphere of unrest and fear that taints the democratic process, making it appear more like a facade of representation than a true reflection of the people’s will. After yet another chaotic election, it’s evident that the lessons of history have been ignored, leaving genuine change seemingly out of reach. At the core of this problem is a deep-seated resignation to a fate dictated by external forces. The idea of a “slave mentality” is widespread, leading to a fatalistic acceptance of the status quo. Despite talk of empowerment and self-determination, the reality is starkly different. Manipur’s residents feel trapped in a cycle of oppression and disillusionment, burdened by apathy and resignation.
Among the states where the BJP and its NDA alliance suffered reverses in the Lok Sabha elections this year are the northeastern border states of Manipur, Nagaland and Mizoram. In Manipur, where the BJP is in power, both the Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur seats were won by Congress candidates while the lone Lok Sabha seat in Nagaland, where an NDA-allied opposition-less government is in power, was also won by a Congress candidate. In Mizoram, the lone Scheduled Tribe (ST)-reserved seat was won by the candidate of the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), the party that is in power in the state. In Meghalaya, Shillong seat was snatched by Ricky Andrew J. Syngkon of regional party, Voice of People’s Party(VPP) while Tura seat was won by INC candidate Saleng Sangma, defeating sitting MP of BJP-NPP ally candidate Agatha Sangma.
Now let us look at what happened in Manipur, a state that has been rocked by an ethnic conflict for over a year now that has claimed over 200 lives so far. On May 3, 2023, violence erupted between Meitei people, a majority that lives in the Imphal Valley, and the Kuki-Zo tribal community from the surrounding hills.
According to government figures, as of May 3, 2024, 221 people have been killed in the violence and 60,000 people have been displaced. Earlier figures also mentioned over 1,000 injured, and 32 missing. 4,786 houses were burnt and 386 religious structures were vandalised, including temples and churches. Unofficial figures are higher.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Inner Manipur seat was won by Rajkumar Ranjan Singh of the BJP while the Outer Manipur seat was won by Lorho F Pfoze of the Naga People’s (NPF), a part of the NDA.
In 2024 though, both the seats were wrested by the Congress. While the Inner Manipur seat was won by Angomcha Bimol Akoijam, the Outer Manipur seat was clinched by Alfred Kan-Ngam Arthur. According to K Yhome, Fellow at the Shillong-based Asian Confluence think tank, the ethnic violence that erupted impacted people in a major way. “Against this backdrop you had a Prime Minister who never visited Manipur,” Yhome told ETV Bharat. “Despite calls from the people of the state to the Prime Minister, this never happened. In such a scenario, when people go to vote, this comes to their mind. The people voted in a very clear and determined mind-set.” People, according to Yhome, had this feeling that their pain went disregarded and they were not being regarded as a part of the country.
“The head of the government is seen as the father of the country,” he said. “People felt that they were being meted out step-fatherly treatment. This gets manifested in anger. The Prime Minister not going to Manipur amid the violence angered both the Meiteis and the Kukis.What went Congress’s way was party leader Rahul Gandhi’s decision to start his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra from Manipur. When Rahul Gandhi came and told the people that he would be their voice in Delhi and he could feel their pain, they got connected. “Rahul Gandhi demonstrated his love and care for the people. The people in Manipur voted for the Congress to express their anger against the BJP,” Yhome explained.
In Nagaland, the lone Lok Sabha seat was won by Tokheho Yepthomi of the state’s ruling National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in the 2019 elections. This time, there was a three-cornered contest in the state. While the NDPP-BJP-led People’s Democratic Alliance (PDA) put up Chumben Murry as a consensus candidate, the Congress named S Supongmeren Jamir as its candiadate. Hayithung Tungoe Lotha, an entrepreneur and social worker, contested as an independent candidate. In the end, Congress’s Jamir beat Murry by a margin of more than 50,000 votes.
According to Yhome, the result in Nagaland should be seen in the context of the political equations in the state. In the assembly elections held in the state last year, the coalition of the NDPP and the BJP formed the government with Neiphiu Rio becoming the Chief Minister. The BJP then severed ties with its local ally, the Naga People’s Front (NPF). The NPF had won only two seats in the 60-member house.“The two NPF MLAs then decided to join the PDA to solve the Naga crisis,” Yhome said. “As result, the state today has an opposition-less government. As such, Congress this time was contesting the Lok Sabha election in the state on a weak wicket.”However, Yhome explained, the people in the state were apprehensive of a BJP comeback at the Centre. “They thought that if the BJP can abrogate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, it can also remove Article 371 (A),” he said. Article 371 (A) of the Constitution has special provisions for Nagaland, safeguarding its religious and social practices, customary laws, and administration of civil and criminal justice.
“The people became very cautious,” Yhome said. “They thought that Hindi and the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) might be imposed. As a Christian majority state, the people of Nagaland have also been watching with a sense of worry and fear the rising atrocities against Christians in various parts of the country under the BJP-led government as can be seen in the statements from the church and civil society bodies when such incidents happen. “He said that though Nagaland has only one Lok Sabha seat, the people of the state decided to send a message by electing the Congress candidate. In Mizoram, this time there was a six-cornered contest for the lone ST-reserved Lok Sabha seat. In the end, Richard Vanlalmangaiha of the state’s ruling Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) won the seat by beating his nearest rival K Vanlalvena of the Mizo National Front (MNF) by a margin of over 68,000 votes. Congress’s Lalbiakzama came third.
The BJP, which came fourth, never had much of an influence in the Christian-majority state anyway.
According to Rini Ralte, secretary of the Zo Reunification Organisation (ZORO), the ZPM is trying to maintain a neutral position in mainstream politics. The ZPM is an alliance of six regional parties formed under the leadership of MLA and former IPS Officer Lalduhoma. The party advocates for secularism and the protection of religious minorities in India. In the 2023 Mizoram Assembly polls, the party won 27 seats out of 40 seats in the state assembly and Lalduhoma became the Chief Minister. “Lalduhoma, a former IPS officer, has been in politics for 40 years but has become the Chief Minister only now,” Ralte told ETV Bharat. “The ZPM candidate did not make any strong personal or political comments ahead of the elections.”
The ZPM is a regional party just like the MNF. But the MNF is part of the NDA and the BJP-led Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA). Unlike the BJP, the Congress, as a national party, has held power in Mizoram. But this time, with a purely regional party like the ZPM in power that is not aligned with any national alliances, both the Congress and the BJP did not have any chance.One major issue has been the influx of refugees from Myanmar because of the civil conflict in India’s eastern neighbour. Mizoram has given shelter to Kuki-Zomis who have been displaced from Manipur after the violence broke out last year. Additionally, Mizoram is providing shelter to thousands of Chin refugees who fled Myanmar due to the fierce fighting between that country’s military junta and ethnic armed organisations. The Mizos have strong connections with the Chins.
Meanwhile, the Centre’s decision to revoke the Free Movement Regime (FMR) between India and Myanmar has angered the people of Mizoram. The ZPM government has been strongly opposing this as well as the Centre’s directives to check the influx of refugees from Myanmar. According to Ralte, what damaged the Congress’s prospects in Mizoram was Rahul Gandhi’s non-committal attitude towards the issues faced by the people of the state. “When Rahul Gandhi came to Mizoram last year ahead of the assembly elections, he should have talked about the boundary (FMR) and refugee issues,” Ralte said. “Vanlalmangaiha is a former government servant. He has only said after winning the Lok Sabha election that he will ensure implementation of Central projects in the state. There is nothing exciting about his victory.
(The views expressed are personal)
