Eliot laments that April is the cruellest month but for Manipur it can be said to be May as most of the agitations started in this month, especially the long crippling bandhs on the National Highways. But since May 03, 2023 every month is cruel impacting the lives of all the people residing in Manipur, There has been a lull in the crisis with hardly any violence for some time so much so that the Chief Minister becomes confident to claim that the crisis will be ended within six months and that one go between have been nominated for dialogue between the two communities. No sooner had he announced that there was a serious violent conflict in the peripheral areas of Imphal East and West, leading to loss of lives and injury to a number of people.
The worst is the use of drones by the Kuki to drop explosives that cause the maximum damage. This will further aggravate the situation as it can no longer be a one sided technology as this is easily available and can be harnessed by any group, if they have the desire. Further, the claim that ex-servicemen was involved in the attacks on Meitei villages have put another dimension in this conflict as it will lay emphasis on strategy and tactical manoeuvring that can lead to more collateral damages. It is, however, observed that when there is a rumour of a likely change in the leadership of the main ruling party in the state, there is a tendency of a bout of violence.
Some central security agencies here reportedly have the capacity to hijack drones as there are reports of use of Drone jammers in Manipur earlier and the utter absence of any effort to control for more than two days attack led to question of nexus. Imphal East was put under prohibitory orders under Section 163 of BNSS that is curfew since July 1, with relaxation from 5 am to 10 pm since August 1, while in Imphal West similar restriction was enforced since September 1.
Further, the security forces went on an overdrive to arrest village volunteers who were drawn from former cadres of Meitei Insurgent Groups and a fairly large number of arms were seized, though the effort in the hill areas yielded lesser results. Once the VV left, the Meitei villages were vulnerable to attack and that is exactly what happened, after recce using drones. There are even allegations of the Central Security Forces stopping the state Commando at Thamnapokpi from targeting the places from where the attacks were launched. A few mortar rounds on such places could have stopped the aerial attack. Such brutal attacks can only lead to retaliatory strikes as no security agencies can provide fool proof mechanisms to protect all vulnerable villages.
If the security forces target those who violate the ceasefire, such attacks will be minimal. One thing is for sure, the Kuki is sending a signal to the other communities within the Kuki-Chin fold that they are the one who is in the forefront among their communities in this conflict and the others are not doing enough, besides also to the Meitei and Naga. Fortunately till now, the violence has not spread to other districts but that can change overnight.
Some were questioning whether there is a linkage between the shifting of two AR units from Manipur to Jammu and the recent violence and one hope that it is not? The question is raised as the area around Koutruk is under the jurisdiction of one of the Bns that is yet to leave for the new assignment. Questions were also raised whether there is an effort to show that only AR can manage the Kuki, and hope this is untrue. The Meitei may not take it lying down as despite all efforts the strategy to bring most MIG cadres to defend their villages and put pressure to come to a cease fire had failed for all practical purposes and in fact the crisis had swelled their numbers.
There is a call from various CSOs for the resignation of the Advisor (Security) and the DGP for their inability to control the violence; but the call is perhaps misdirected. They are merely agents of the Union Government and the buck will stop only at the level of the PM and the Union Home Minister. The Chief Minister is also culpable as he surrendered his responsibility and his statement on the floor of the House that he is not in command is pathetic as he seems trying to absolve himself from the failure.
Despite the Advisor (Security) being made the Chairman of the Unified Command, the order explicitly mentions that the CM can call the meeting of the Unified Command and he will chair such meetings. He had called two such meetings as revealed in a reply to an Assembly starred question and why has he not called and chaired such a meeting now? Has he been rebuked for the past two such incidents and thus refrained from calling such a meeting? A few MLAs had written to the UHM or spoken about the need for the CM to be reinstated as the Chairman of the Unified Command and this is nothing but an attempt to mislead the public; trying to show something is being done though it has no real value.
Unfortunately, the central forces are seen as not that reliable by the Meitei from numerous past instances, thus the state must take measures to have sufficient jammers for drones and even use mortars and other devices to ensure that such aerial attacks do not recur.
The allegation that ex-servicemen have joined the ranks of the militants must be nipped in the bud by cancelling the pension of those involved in violent acts, once any evidence surfaces. This will be a major deterrent and as the servicemen and the ex-servicemen are in good relations the former must inform the latter of the consequences of such an act. The claim of foreign hand in the use of weaponized drones may be true or not as there was an instance of the seizure of 10 high end batteries for use in drone in Guwahati some time back where one close relative of a Minister was apprehended.
Further there was circulation in SM of a receipt issued by the drone unit of the ITLF for an amount of Rs 3.90 lakh from the Bnei Menashe. But one thing must be clear; whether there is foreign support or not, it is the responsibility of the Indian state to ensure that such attacks are nipped in the bud and those involved brought to task under the law of the land.
For the Kuki-Chin, they need to keep the pot boiling as once normalcy returns their demands may be kept under cold storage. But the methods employed may be counterproductive for them in the long run. Elected representatives holding on to their position without realising the impact it is having on the overall political, economical and social condition is also counterproductive and can be the death knell of their political journey.
The situation developing in Manipur cannot be seen in isolation but needs to be seen in the geo-political context and the happenings in Myanmar and Bangladesh must also be taken into consideration. China and even the US will never swallow the rise of India and will do anything in their power to ensure that India continues to be under their thumbs. The effort to balkanise Manipur can ultimately lead to the balkanisation of the entire country with Manipur as an experiment and when India wakes up to this reality, the stage may be too late for any effective countermeasures.
What can the elected representatives do at this juncture? The 10 Kuki-Chin MLAs had through thick and thin stayed together calling for Separate Administration and then Union Territory with Legislature. If they can do it, why can’t the 37 Meitei MLAs decide in an all party meeting and resign en masse to show solidarity with the public. This can be done only if the CM who is the leader of the House has the courage to call for such a meeting and that is most unlikely. Or wait for a spontaneous movement like the state had witnessed in the June 18 or Monorama incidents and face the ire of the public. It is clear that every effort was made to avoid such spontaneous non violent uprising and may even use militia to control such uprising, if any, but they will also be swept by the tide of the people as they are never against the people but for the people.
Both the leadership in Manipur and India need to wake up to the danger that is lurking and if trusting that personal or short term measures can manage the situation, by the time they woke up it may be beyond redemption and see India being balkanised like the USSR, Yugoslavia, etc.
(The views expressed are personal)
