The saying that troubles come in dozens is coming true for Manipur. After the present crisis started on May 3, 2023, the rain god was unkind and there was hardly any rain in parts of Manipur forcing many farmers unable to grow paddy, the main cereal crop. In addition due to the crisis large tracts of land had to remain fallow as there was firing when attempts were made to cultivate. Manipur is basically sustained by the PDS rice which from time to time was not distributed due to one or the other reasons and at one time a four or five months quota was not distributed leading to a sharp increase in price of rice. Unfortunately the government hardly does anything except trying to point fingers at others.
There may have been problems or bottlenecks and it is the government, particularly the minister in charge, to ensure that the distribution of the PDS rice goes on smoothly and regularly. Rice, or for that matter any edible, cannot be eaten retrospectively. One cannot starve for one month and eat it next month along with that for the current month. When price rises, the poor are the most affected. The rich and those who are getting salaries from the government can always manage as their salaries are paid, though there are delays in disbursement but those who earn their livelihood either through small businesses or industrial units and in private sectors are finding it difficult to sustain themselves.
This year the state was visited by a horrendous hailstorm destroying not only houses and other properties but a large number of vegetable farms, thereby impoverishing many farmers while shooting up the prices of veggies. This was followed by two bouts of flood, mostly in Imphal areas though many fish farms and paddy fields in the outskirts and other areas have also been submerged, impacting the fish and other farmers. In many places the water is yet to be drained out, thereby creating health hazards to both humans and animals. In the hills, the heavy downpour led to land and mudslides blocking traffic. Unfortunately, few lives have also been lost. The government may have done an assessment of the losses of every such calamity but these are not readily available in the public domain and will run into hundreds of crores.
As usual, finger pointing followed after any calamity, whether man-made or natural. For the hailstorm, climate change was blamed and for the flood, cutting trees for poppy plantation was the main cause indicated. Encroachment on river banks and drains were also claimed to be major causes of the flood. The floods were either due to overflowing and breach of the river banks or in many areas due to lack of proper drainage system. Destroying the traditional system or filling it up by plastic and other mucks and not cleaning it or reducing the size of the drains was indicated as the main cause. Very few put the blame of the encroachment on wetlands which had earlier served as storm water reservoirs, though a few had indicated this as a major concern. In the past, land owners came together to clean the irrigation canals in most loukons by pooling resources and drains were also cleaned by local clubs. But now all prefer to rely on the government, which is unmoving and not capable due to severe resource crunch. Despite publicity not to throw waste on the drains and rivers people go on merrily dumping and when they are hit by flood, blame everybody except themselves.
During the first flood, the political leaders were more proactive but in the second flood most are absent except in a few places thereby indicating that they also are literally at their tether’s end to provide support. Most politicians due to the financial crunch of the state government are not minting the kind of money they used to do so earlier and now only a few are benefiting from government funds. Thus the ability of most to help those in distress in their constituency seems to dwindle. The support through crowd funding is at the most limited as by now most people have been pauperised.
Most business activity is on the verge of collapse, and without a further moratorium on the loans availed by the entrepreneurs from banks, most will become NPA and will in future ineligible to seek further loans to either revive or expand their business. Further, due to large scale extortion and the inability to pay the high amount demanded, many were directed to close shops or else there would be violence and quite a few had just closed shops. Most of the incidents of grenade or IED being placed or firing on residences can be attributed to such extortion rackets. This impacts not only the entrepreneurs but also those who are employed in the business and government departments.
There is no denying that the present crisis requires money to manage and in the early part everybody, irrespective of their income, chipped in either for defending the villages or support to the IDPs, but the long drawn crisis had forced many either to reduce their contribution or unable to contribute. It seems that the number of people demanding money is becoming more than the number who are directly involved in the crisis. Those who are demanding money need to understand that closure of businesses is nothing but killing the goose that lays the golden egg and their source will be squeezed and after some time there will be hardly anyone to demand. There may be a time when the public will come out in the open to challenge those demanding money. The overall economic condition needs to be understood by all or else Manipur will see further conflict. Last year in the per capita ranking Manipur stood at last but two but this year it is likely that Manipur may be the state with the lowest per capita income.
All sectors are facing the bruned. The number of patients admitted in any private hospital or clinic has gone down by fifty percent and the occupancy of hotels is in many cases below twenty percent. Eateries have sprung up almost everywhere as it is one business which can be started with limited investment, especially roadside one but after a brief euphoria when street foods were started, most have discontinued and restaurants are receiving much fewer patrons. Except for shops dealing in edible items, those dealing in other items have seen a huge downturn.
Construction works both in the public and private sector had gone down dramatically though there was a boom just after the covid pandemic. Roads are now difficult to negotiate, especially those which were flooded and one may say that even in Imphal there is hardly any good road. Even in education, most private schools are starved of students; the rich ones are sending their kids outside to study while the lower middle class and the poor are sending to government schools despite the fact that many government schools are hosting relief camps and classes are staggered with a student attending only 3 days a week. In higher education, many families who can ill afford to send their kids outside are forced to do so; compounded by the mismanagement of the government colleges. Transport sector is also in doldrums as the number of trips one can take per month is limited due to security concerns. Further, vehicles can ply only in limited jurisdiction.
Government had constituted a Cabinet sub-committee to look into the rehabilitation of the IDPs in the relief camps and temporary shelters but what Manipur needs now is a much larger canvas covering not only the IDPs but the overall economic sector, with emphasis on the IDPs. It needs to be understood that the current crop of young entrepreneurs are different from the earlier ones, where units were established to supply to the government. But the present crop is competing in the market and do not rely on the government for their business. They are providing employment and making the environment unsecure for them will only result in them going outside the state which a few had already done. Others are likely to follow suit.
Agriculture, seen as a dependable profession, is no longer so; taking into account the lack of irrigation facilities and the vagaries of the climate. Further, without improved technology including inputs it is just not profitable, especially paddy cultivation. High input cost results in local produce unable to compete even in the local market with those brought from outside the state. Shifting to high value crops has limited advantage as the customers are limited.
Manipur, both in the hill and the valley, is now facing a multitude of problems making survival a difficult proposition. The government needs to rise above sectarian politics and have the vision to navigate the challenges or else Manipur will be a failed state.
(The views expressed are personal)
