Before violence erupted on May 03, 2023 afternoon at Churachandpur after the tribal Solidarity March that ended without much problem, and spread to other areas, there were some incidents that are the forerunner to the violence; like the arson on a Forest beat office, vandalising of the Open Gym that was to be inaugurated by the HCM, etc the relevance of which was not properly assessed then.
On the allegation of arson on a Memorial gate at Kangvai, violence started spreading like wild fire in all places where both Meitei and Kuki reside together. This is not the first time that arson was carried out against the Meitei in Kuki dominated areas. It had happened in 2015 at Moreh when during the JCILP rally some shops were vandalised and a few set on fire at Moreh. That was settled after the CSOs of both sides sat together. But this time it was different as the Meitei retaliated with equal, if not more violence.
After the incident on the Open Gym at Churachandpur on April 28, 2023 that was reported widely, even before the March, correspondents from a few International and national media were stationed in Churachandpur and that indicate pre-planning of the violence. These media representatives would not have come if the event would be peaceful but they must have prior information that there is likely to be violence.
Peace is not newsworthy but violence is. And when violence erupted, in Churachandpur, Kangpokpi and Moreh and then in the Central Manipur valley the earliest narratives was that it is a violence between the majority and minority communities and then between Hindus and minority Christians. This narrative was predominant and correcting these took months. Further, as both the Centre and State are ruled by the BP, the left media reported with glee. The figures that there is no longer any majority community in Manipur as none have a population of 50 per cent or above or that many Christians still stay in the Central Manipur valley as also Hindus in Moreh and Churachandpur refuse to cut any ice.
But slowly the narrative fell apart and later it was understood that it is a conflict between the Meitei and the Kuki-Chin. Though the violence was first started by the latter they played the victim card so well ably supported by some government agencies and some mainstream left media, who were vociferous in their self proclaimed righteous claims. The matter was further exacerbated by the call of the 10 Kuki-Chin MLAs for a separate administration on May 9. In the narrative war, the Meitei as they were totally unprepared was as the receiving end as they even now do not have a united front in this conflict but slowly they caught up in their own disorganised way.
Many articles have been written about the use of the Kuki by the national agencies in their fight against the NSCN (I-M) and the Meitei Insurgent Groups (MIGs) and without any systemic counter from either the Kuki groups or the national agencies many treat this as fact. In fact there are claims that the Naga-Kuki conflict of 1992 was started by the Kuki as also the Kuki-Paite clash of 1997. The Meitei tends to put the entire blame on to the Assam Rifles, ignorant that it is under the operational command of the army. It is the Indian deep state that is playing the cards.
The crisis in Manipur even saw the differences between the agencies of the Centre, with one retired ex ADGP of the BSF coming out by putting the blame on the AR for its inability to manage the border. BSF was earlier guarding the border with Myanmar and they were supplanted by the AR in CI Ops in Moreh and a few other areas. BSF has a long relation with Manipur as two Bns of Manipur Rifles the 3rd and 4th Bns merging with BSF and even a Subsidiary Training Centre was established in Churachandpur. But after the One Border One Force policy was adopted in 2004, with the Indo-Myanmar given to AR for a dual role of border guarding and CI Ops, the role of the BSF in Manipur was marginalised.
To counter the Ex ADGP of BSF, the army brought out the Ex DG of AR and when it could not cut any ice, the ex GOC Eastern Command was brought out to speak to the media. Ultimately the COAS spoke to the media but people still continue to believe the narrative of the Ex BSF as his claims are seen as more sincere with deep knowledge of the state having been posted as DIG. The fixation of the army on MIGs is seen in COAS naming them for receiving assistance from foreign parties but refrain from naming any others by merely mentioning as “Other group”.
The narrative management of the Kuki as mentioned above was superb but perhaps due to arrogance made their first mistake by the use of drone for delivery of RPG at Koutruk on September 01 of this year and the next day at Sinam Kom and Senjam Chirang. The ex DG AR and the COAS pooh pooh this narrative and continue to claim that there is no such delivery but as the matter was to be handled by the NIA as mentioned by the State Government, specific details is better not discussed. But there are eye-witnesses, the shape of the blast sites and the pieces of the RPG that was blasted, etc can easily determine whether drone delivery of the RPG is there or not and it may be decided after detailed investigation and claims for or against is merely to put pressure on the investigative agencies, especially when it comes from serving and retired senior security personnel.
None refutes now that rockets were fired though it was denied at the start when a person was killed and six others injured when two such rockets blasted at Moirang on September 6. This is due to the fact that the remnants of the projectiles have been recovered, including one that fell near the CRPF camp earlier. The first such rocket was fired on August 10 that landed at Oksungbung.
Now the narrative from some security agencies is that both sides have this technology and that can be true but which party uses it to create fear is what is relevant. The technology is primitive and both the propellant and the explosive used are of low grade. Kuki-Chin have an advantage as they can fire from the hill on Meitei villages that are usually densely populated while for the Meitei targeting with such unguided rockets on small villages in the hills is futile. These two incidents in the early part of September put the Kuki narratives on the back foot, with many mainstream media sending correspondents to visit the sites and based on what they saw and heard reported these incidents as true.
The third misstep is the abduction of three boys from Thoubal who had strayed into Kuki dominated areas with the intent to report to 33 AR for one of them joining a test. Their casual nature is unforgivable as they are not even clear whether it is new Keithelmanbi or Keithelmanbi and since the crisis is nearly 17 months old, they should have enquired at Sekmai or at Kanglatongbi and they would have been advised not to proceed further. But these are post mortem and as the event had happened, and as one boy was having necessary papers he was handed over to the AR while the two were kept in their custody. They demanded that the two will be exchanged with Mark T Haokip who was involved in an anti National activity for espousing Kukiland and the case was handled by the NIA.
The father of Mark Haokip clarified that he has no knowledge of this proposed swap as perhaps he is aware that such a demand will make his son’s case highly disadvantaged. There are many incidents of people from the two communities straying to the other’s side and they were mostly killed except for a few cases where they were returned unharmed. But in this particular case, the approach is methodical and cold blooded to meet an end and. The father of Mark Haokip wants no part in the proposed exchange and now they will be in a dilemma as doing them away will put them in very poor light and keeping them is a risk for them. The pressure from the security forces must be tremendous and it can lead to conflict between them and the central forces.
Perhaps, due to their dominance in the narratives in mainstream media for more than a year, they were a bit reckless and arrogant forgetting Shakespeare’s quote “When sorrow comes, they come not as single spies but in battalions”. These three incidents may be the harbinger of things to come.
(The views expressed expressed are personal)
