Lok Sabha 2024 elections in the state of Manipur would be interesting to watch in the case of Outer Manipur constituency. The constituency reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) had seen representation of both Naga and Kuki leaders since 1952. The late Rishang Keishing had first won the seat in 1952 with a Socialist Party ticket; after which stalwarts like R Suisa, Paokai Haokip, Yangmasho Shaiza, N Gouzagin and Meijinlung Kamson had followed one after another. Altogether six Nagas and five from Kuki-Chin group had represented the outer constituency.
In 1998, NSCN (I-M) chose to boycott the elections and two Kukis in the person of Kim Gangte and Holkhomang Haokip won in 1998 and 1999. After that, an independent candidate Mani Charanamei backed by NSCN (I-M) won. However, Thangso Baite of Congress won the seat twice till it was wrested by Lorho S Pfoze of Naga Peoples Front (NPF) in 2019.
An important point to note here is that, except for Kim Gangte and Holkhomang Haokip all the other Kuki candidates were from the Congress party. Kim Gangte who got a last minute ticket from CPI won because of the NSCN (I-M) boycott. The catch here is that, the eight assembly constituencies of the valley plays a role in the Outer Manipur election.
The eight constituencies are Jiribam, Kakching, Sugnu, Wabagai, Hiyanglam, Wangjing-Tentha, Heirok and Khangabok. In the last Lok Sabha elections, out of 8.58 lakh total voters in the Outer Manipur constituency around 2.35 lakh voters were from these eight constituencies.
In 2019 general elections, Lorho S Pfoze of NPF won with 3,63,527 votes while Benjamin Mate of BJP came second with 2, 89, 745 votes. The Congress candidate K James, also a Naga, came in third with 1,52,510 votes. What we see here is the consolidation of Naga votes and the Congress playing spoilsport for Benjamin Mate of BJP in the valley constituencies. Also, there was a division in the Kuki-Chin electorate with Lorho Pfoze getting a sizeable chunk of votes in Churachandpur. And a major chunk of Meitei votes went to Congress followed by BJP candidate. BJP thought it would be able to consolidate both Kuki-Chin and Meitei votes.
However, its alignment with NPF in government formation was not in its favour in the valley. The issue of valley voters of Outer Manipur Constituency having only the right to vote while not getting the privilege of contesting elections has long been a festering wound for the eight assembly constituencies. The candidates and the political parties see these eight constituencies as a vote-bank, while at the same time it does the balancing act between the Naga and Kuki candidates.
Come election time, every candidate will come and promise to work for the inclusion of the eight assembly constituencies to the Inner Manipur constituency. Yet, nobody cares after winning the elections. Being clubbed as voters of a reserved constituency, the voters of these eight assembly segments of the valley are deprived of the opportunity to contest the parliamentary election despite commanding a substantial number of votes.
Now, with a festering ethnic conflict between the Meiteis and Kukis for more than 10 months, the goalposts have shifted. Kuki candidates either from ruling BJP or Congress would find few takers in the eight valley constituencies because of the enmity. On the other hand, a consolidation of votes in the Kuki-Chin or Kuki-Zo fold would be a mirage because of deep-rooted inter-tribal rivalry at the grassroots and the struggle for dominance between the major tribes.
The latest indicator of things to come is the violence between two groups which would certainly reflect in the days to come. The recent violence may be a case of implosion from within, but who knows it is too much of a coincidence. Ever since the Kuki-Paite riots, Nagas have made their imprint in Churachandpur district.
