Despite rumblings that during the present Manipur crisis, election to the Lok Sabha in Manipur must not be held and that peace should first prevail before even thinking about election, there is now a nascent election fervour with many huddling together to discuss the coming election. People are predicting who will be the candidate for which party and who has the brighter chance of winning. The crisis and the fight between the two communities seem to have been forgotten and those who are in the frontline have been almost given a go-bye.
The firing had also literally stopped indicating that both sides are keen on the election believing that further fight will ensure postponement of the election. However, as indicated earlier even if there is no firing between the two communities, there can be no free and fair election, as the unlicensed arms with the civilians will only be used in the election. In the last election to the Manipur Legislative Assembly, using licensed arms people had lost their lives and even candidates were shot. There is very strong apprehension that huge illegal investment will be made in the election, which most likely will lead to the use of firearms for threat and intimidation.
The recent laying of foundation stones and inauguration of projects virtually by the PM kicked started the canvassing for the ruling party. Even a natural turf football ground, the foundation stone of which was virtually laid by the PM was again laid in situ by the CM. Transfer of compensation for those farmers who were affected by the present turmoil was handed over the amount in a big event at Hapta Kangjeibung while it should have been done through e-transfer to their accounts, wasting scarce resources when the state is reeling under serious financial problems. The ruling party will also benefit when there are more candidates and will ensure that there is no straight fight. Thus there will be candidates who have no chance of winning even in their wildest dreams for obvious reasons. This has happened in the past and will happen this time and subsequent elections.
For the Kuki group, for success there has to be only one candidate for the Outer Manipur Constituency most probably from the KPA and that no other candidate from any other party will be tolerated. The Kuki will vote en bloc for their candidate and irrespective of political affiliation none will abide by the direction of the political party but support their community candidate. For the Naga, there will be at least three candidates, one from the BJP, one from the Congress and one from the NFP thus the Naga votes will be split among the candidates thereby minimising their chances of winning. There may be other candidates also from other parties though they may only be also-ran. Thus, the Meitei votes from the eight Assembly segments and those who are IDPs from Churachandpur and Moreh will be crucial for any Naga candidate to have even a slim chance of winning.
The tendency of MPs of the Outer Constituency to disregard the 8 Meitei Assembly segment in terms of investments from the Local Area Fund and the inability to visit the areas once election is over and during their tenure makes the voters of these segment very wary to trust any candidate to come out in large number to vote. Thus, for any Naga candidate, if the elections are held they need to ensure that no Meitei groups boycott the election as it will be a repeat of a past Lok Sabha election where such boycott by a VBIG led to the victory of a Naga candidate who in the Lok Sabha spoke all the time against the state government and its policies. With the present crisis, no Meitei will want to see a Kuki candidate elected as an MP and will support a Naga candidate, preferably a Tangkhul whose community has a greater say in the Naga politics or even a Mao as the relation of the Meitei with this community has progressed after the quarrel with the Angami.
Meitei has issues with both the Naga and the Kuki; Naga had been demanding Southern Nagaland which was strenuously opposed by the Meitei and now the Kuki is demanding separate administration which also is opposed by the Meitei. For the Meitei, the choice is the lesser evil and at present, the Naga seem to fit the bill. There is also a belief now among the Meitei that as both Meitei and Naga are indigene any difference can be settled through talks. There are hardliners on both sides who will act as dampener but the moderates from both communities will be amenable to give and take. If there are two candidates from the Tangkhul community, which is most likely as per the information available in the public domain the Meitei need to decide who to support.
Whatever be the case, in Manipur the hills do not go by competency or party but by community, come what may be. The role of the Naga UG whether one likes it or not will decide the candidate who will be supported by the Naga people and if this candidate is also supported by the Meitei he will have a very good chance of winning. Judicious selection of candidates by the political parties will determine the outcome. Canvassing in the hills has already started and prospective candidates are visiting villages to garner support.
Even in some of the Meitei dominated segments garnering support for some prospective candidates have started more than a year back though at present the canvassing is low key through reliable contacts and mass campaign is yet to start. The pressure will however be on the smaller communities and they will not be able to resist the pressure from their bigger neighbours be it Naga or Kuki. This may be an area of conflict where effort to control the voting of smaller communities will be attempted. The casualty unfortunately may be from the smaller communities. And this may lead to conflict between the Naga and the Kuki, if the security agencies do not make a determined effort to stop such incursions.
For the Inner Constituency, despite demands that elections need to be deferred due to the present crisis, many are already on the job. Due to the dissatisfaction of the performance of the elected representatives in the Parliament, people are very wary about the candidates and there is discussion that if the election is to be held there must, like the US Presidential election where large crowd gather and listen, a proper civil debate is held amongst the candidates giving them similar time with a competent moderator to enable the candidates to show their competency and the voters to decide on their choice.
All media houses must be involved and there must be ground rules that heckling of any candidate from the audience is strictly avoided and if need be such audience is firmly escorted out from the venue. Money will, however, continue to play a big role but there is a need to bring in changes for more ethical voting in the election. Election in a democracy is critical and without proper election to think about good governance is asking for the moon. The situation in Manipur is ripe to usher in responsible voting so that the best candidate is elected. If there is no good candidate, NOTA is always there. In fact there must be a law that if NOTA garners maximum votes, no candidate be declared as elected.
The Meitei due to multifarious issues is undecided whether elections should be held or not. Some strenuously oppose it while some feel that the election ought to be held. A common view needs to be taken and if election is preferred there should be no boycott by any group. Another concern is the involvement of armed groups and this is true for both in the hill and the valley, and more so in the latter. The valley was generally not influenced by intimidation and went by money but this time it may change.
Despite the crisis, many are preparing for the election though in a low key manner but once the candidates are announced and the election notification issued there will be no hold bar in canvassing and the crisis will be in the back-foot till the election is over. For the Meitei, even with all religious festivals given a go-bye due to the crisis, unfortunately they may not be able to resist the festival of democracy.
(The views expressed are personal)
